The Set of Strategic Documents on Climate Change in Tajikistan

On 2 October 2019, the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan adopted the "National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change of the Republic of Tajikistan until 2030" (hereinafter - the Strategy) by Decree No. 482. An important impetus for the development and adoption of the Strategy was the speech of the Founder of Peace and National Unity – Leader of the Nation, President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon at the Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris and at the plenary session of the 72nd UN General Assembly, noted that although the contribution of the Republic of Tajikistan in greenhouse gas emissions on the global scale is small, yet Tajikistan is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world to the impacts of climate change. The Strategy consists of 5 chapters and covers the period until 2030.

The Preamble of the Strategy notes that Tajikistan ranks first among European and Central Asian countries on an estimated simplified climate change vulnerability index, and is particularly sensitive on this criterion due to its low adaptive capacity. The national consultation for the development of the Strategy identified four main sectors as priorities, which are both climate-sensitive and a priority for development - energy, water resources, transport and agriculture.

The Strategy will contribute to the formulation and implementation of the country's climate change and adaptation policies and aims to support economic growth and accelerate the modernisation of all sectors of the economy. The Strategy notes that between 1940 and 2017, Tajikistan has experienced temperature increases of 0.1ºC-0.2ºC for every decade. The number of days with temperatures of 40ºC and above is increasing year by year.

According to this document, glacier melting and retreat related to climate change continue. The largest glacier in Tajikistan, the Fedchenko Glacier, has retreated 1 km and lost about 5 km of ice since the beginning of the 20th century.

The Strategy provides climate change scenarios, in which climate change is likely to cause an increase in air temperature. By the end of the 21st century, the scenario expects warming to exceed 5°C in southern Tajikistan, as well as in the mountains of central Tajikistan and the western Pamirs.

The Strategy shows anticipated losses, risks and threats related to climate change, impacts by sector. Some adaptation options provide cross-sectoral benefits. For example, cross-sectoral adaptation options such as integrated water resources management (IWRM) and ecosystem-based adaptation are considered more effective than stand-alone efforts to reduce climate-related risks. A strong emphasis in the document is on the diversification of energy sources, which would reduce Tajikistan's heavy reliance on hydropower. Several adaptation options are also proposed that could help reduce the current and future vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change and climate extremes, and address existing gaps.

According to the Strategy, education and awareness-raising play an essential role in enhancing the adaptive capacity of communities to climate change, as it enables people to undertake proactive planning to reduce and adapt to climate risks. The Strategy emphasises that a climate change curriculum should be introduced in school curricula at all levels to ensure effective learning and an in-depth understanding of the cause, effects and potential responses to climate change risks and impacts.

The document proposes climate change adaptation options and investment projects with climate-friendly impacts. The 33 projects proposed for inclusion in the Strategy are all geographically diverse and have coverage at national, provincial, district and local scales. They cover 10 different technical and specialised sectors, and include various levels of useful detail.

The Strategy emphasises that its implementation will also depend to some extent on financial support from the multilateral development banks. Some domestic funding from the state budget, the private sector as well as individual contributions may contribute, but the resources required for the effective implementation of the Strategy will require external support from donors.

In 2021, the Republic of Tajikistan submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which focuses on adaptation and mitigation measures to support sustainable and effective development, taking into account climate change, environmental and socio-economic issues. It outlines the country's proposed efforts covering the 10-year period from 2020 to 2030.

The NDC provides projections of GHG emissions in the Republic of Tajikistan until 2030 for three scenarios, namely; (i) the baseline scenario, which considers that any mitigation measure would be successfully implemented; (ii) the unconditional scenario, which considers all the existing mitigation measures that will be implemented with the country’s own efforts up to 2030; and (iii) the conditional scenario, which considers additional mitigation measure to be implemented in the country that rely on adequate international financial or technical support, technology transfer, or capacity building.

The unconditional contribution of reducing GHG emissions in the Republic of Tajikistan is not to exceed 60-70% of GHG emissions of 1990, which is the reference year, by 2030, which stands at 21.32 to 24.87 Mt CO₂-eq by 2030. The conditional contribution, subject to a significant international funding and technology transfer, is not to exceed 50-60% GHG emissions as of 1990 by 2030, which stands at 17.76 to 21.32 Mt CO₂-eq by 2030. These targets cover all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol and cover the Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), and Waste sectors.

The NDC furthermore includes adaptive measures across the priority sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan to overcome current and future economic and social consequences of climate change in the country. The identification of priority sectors is based on multiple key national strategies, namely, the National Development Strategy 2016-2030, the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2019-2030, and the Medium-term Development Program 2016-2020. The included adaptation sectors are Energy, Water Resources, Agriculture and Forestry, Transport and Infrastructure, Industry and Construction, and Cross-Sectoral sectors, which include Education, Health, Migration, Environmental Protection, and Gender. The NDC provides adaptive measures at sectoral level for each of these priority sectors.

The Tajikistan NDC Implementation Plan was approved by Order No. 80 of the Chairman of the Committee o Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, dated 20 April 2022.

However, in a time when it is crucial that all countries ensure that they meet their NDC commitments, NDC implementation plans can provide benefits to acquire international support and improved transparency. It does not directly constitute to the implementation of an NDC, but rather acts as a tool to support and ensure an effective implementation process, and can be used for a multitude of aspects such as:

• Clearly identify the actions and measures to be implemented.
• Define roles and responsibilities of key agencies, ministries, and departments.
• Identify resources available and needed for implementation of the NDC.
• Specify timeframes for implementation of specific policies and measures.
• Outline expected impacts of implementation policies and measures.
• Assess the feasibility and risks of implementation policies and actions.
• Identify capacity needs for implementation and gaps in knowledge and data.
• Identify necessary regulatory and legal frameworks.
• Identify relevant stakeholders and the plan for stakeholder engagement.
• Identify coordination mechanisms.
• Specify how progress will be monitored and reports.
• Identify linkages between the policies and action implemented to achieve the NDC and the SDGs.

Therefore, NDC implementation plans define how countries’ NDCs are implemented over time which will determine whether the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement is achieved.
Each country will adapt the implementation of its NDC on the nature of its NDC, how the NDC was developed, and the national circumstances of the country. It is generally described as a “living” document, with information representing the circumstances and understanding of the country at the time it is drafted and should therefore be periodically updated to ensure new information is includes as it becomes available. The successful implementation of NDCs can support countries prepare for their next NDC submission and increase ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.

Set of Strategic Documents - Climate Change in Tajikistan.pdf